According to U.S. Defense Intelligence, countries are using quantum technology more.
A sobering warning is issued by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency’s (DIA) 2025 Worldwide Threat Assessment: adversaries are strengthening their cooperation and increasing cyber threats against U.S. interests and vital infrastructure, while quantum technologies are quickly approaching operational military use. According to the paper, modern warfare is undergoing a fundamental transformation due to rapid advancements in quantum science, artificial intelligence (AI), microelectronics, and cyber capabilities.
The Quick Development of Quantum
The DIA assessment marks a change by presenting quantum as a current element of active defense planning by countries such as China and Russia, rather than only as a worry of the future. Although the potential of quantum computing to crack encryption has garnered a lot of public attention, the DIA contends that quantum sensors are more likely to have practical applications. These sensors are getting sensitive enough to maybe find submarines or subterranean constructions without the aid of satellites since they can sense changes in magnetic or gravitational fields. Situational awareness could be greatly improved by such capabilities, especially in areas where conventional GPS signals are weak or blocked.
There has been notable advancement in quantum-secure communications, which goes beyond sensing. With several city-spanning lines employing quantum key distribution (QKD), a technique thought to be impervious to modern eavesdropping techniques, China’s national quantum network is still growing. Additionally, Russia is spending money on secure quantum links, most likely with assistance from national defense and research organizations.
Though not abstract, quantum computing is viewed as a longer-term threat despite its transformational potential. Although there aren’t many quantum computers available right now, algorithmic developments are apparently lowering the resources required to compromise private information. The number of quantum bits (qubits) needed to crack RSA encryption may be an order of magnitude fewer than previously thought, according to developments, albeit the viability and physicality of such assaults have not yet been established.
There are also drawbacks, such as difficulties with manufacturing, stability, and error correction for different quantum computing systems, and most military field applications still require large, power-intensive quantum sensing devices. However, the evaluation comes to the conclusion that although quantum technologies won’t completely transform warfare right away, they are gradually making their way into vital systems and providing benefits like faster target recognition, unbreakable communications, and more accurate navigation that meet the demands of contemporary, networked warfare.
Microelectronics and Convergence: The Basis of Upcoming Dangers
The combination of these distinct technological advancements lends them more weight. According to the paper, quantum technologies are not evolving alone; rather, they are combining with advanced manufacturing, artificial intelligence, and electronic warfare to speed up their incorporation into military systems. By connecting sensors and secure communications to AI-driven decision frameworks, these combinations enable countries to investigate the use of quantum computers for signal analysis, logistics, and multi-domain simulations.
Advanced microelectronics is a key component of this entire technological race. The DIA emphasizes that the key to technological rivalry is chips and fabrication capacity, which constitute a major chokepoint. High-end microelectronics must be available in order to create computing-intensive technologies like quantum and artificial intelligence. Competitors are actively trying to lessen their need on foreign supplies, even if the United States and its allies have an advantage in production and design. Although export restrictions have hindered China’s advancement in several fields, research on quantum technology is apparently being maintained by domestic investments and international workarounds. Russia emphasizes electronics for vital systems like missiles and secure communications despite supply shortages and pricing pressures brought on by sanctions.
Evolving Cyber Threats
Increasing cyber activity from both state and non-state entities also has a substantial impact on the threat landscape. According to the research, enemies are looking for new ways to endanger vital infrastructure and cyber networks in the United States.
Cyber Focus: China reformed its armed forces, placing Aerospace, Cyberspace, Information Support, and Joint Logistic Support Forces under the Central Military Commission to prioritize cyber and electronic warfare as asymmetric capabilities. China intends to challenge US space dominance by upgrading its C5ISRT capabilities. Chinese cyber intrusions, often attributed to the PLA Cyberspace Force and Ministry of State Security, target global networks, including US government networks, to steal data and intellectual property.
It’s highly probable that China will keep utilizing its cyber capabilities to gather intelligence on political, military, economic, and intellectual targets as well as to steal confidential data for its own military and economic gain. In the event that a significant confrontation with the United States is perceived as impending, the U.S. government has publicly named Chinese cyber operators who are preparing for possible attacks on U.S. key infrastructure since early 2024.
Russia’s Asymmetric Approach: Russia is still able to use asymmetric capabilities, such as cyber and media campaigns, in order to avoid direct confrontation with NATO. Russian state and non-state cyber entities continue to launch a lot of offensive attacks on networks connected to the United States. Espionage has been given priority in state-sanctioned operations; one group, allegedly affiliated with the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), exfiltrated terabytes of data from Microsoft, including information about U.S. government accounts.
Since 2023, low-level attacks against energy and water systems have become more frequent targets for pro-Russian non-state hackers, endangering public safety and national security. In reaction to Western support for Ukraine, Russia is probably going to keep utilizing proxies, cyber, media operations, and covert action.
North Korea and Iran: To get around sanctions, North Korea continues to use cyberspace as a weapon for espionage and financial gain. It does this by using ransomware, cryptocurrency theft, and hacking-for-hire. Additionally, it targets foreign academics, defense industry professionals, and politicians for intelligence that supports the development of weapons, frequently collaborating with international criminal networks. Iran has increased its cyberattacks, cyberespionage, and information operations against Israel to help its regional proxies.
Geopolitical Cooperation Strategic Implications
According to the research, China and Russia’s increasing military and technical collaboration, along with their interactions with North Korea and Iran, is reflected in these technological and cyber advancements. China engages in cooperative training and technical exchanges but is wary of providing direct military assistance. According to reports, Russia provides partners with nuclear and space technology, some of which have dual-purpose uses related to navigation or quantum sensing. In an effort to evade American influence, adversaries are strengthening their cooperation.
The defense of the United States is significantly impacted strategically by these trends. The report affirms that defense strategy must now include quantum preparedness, going beyond cybersecurity to evaluate how quantum clocks and sensors might contradict preconceived notions about detection, stealth, and navigation. This is a significant change from earlier evaluations that saw quantum mostly as a long-term area of study.
Given that quantum technologies might be challenging to identify and validate prior to deployment, there is an increasing danger of technical surprise. This shortens warning time and makes intelligence collection more difficult. The United States may be acting on antiquated presumptions if rival quantum capabilities are not clearly benchmarked and monitored.
Last but not least, the international scope of commercial and academic partnerships in quantum science presents risks because partnerships with Chinese government-backed organizations might not be in line with U.S. interests, and research results might be used for military purposes, highlighting the significance of export controls and secure research environments.
